You don’t need to day trade stocks, spend hours at a blackjack table, or enter nightly NBA parlays to be aware of your brain’s risk/reward center. And there’s not one correct way to approach risk. One person’s risky maneuver is another’s baseline strategy. Risk looks different to all of us and that’s no different when it comes to fantasy football.
We are familiar with boom/bust metrics. The FFBallers provide similar consistency ratings. The truth in fantasy, as in finance, is a diversified risk portfolio usually outperforms a concentrated low-risk strategy. Heck, even Morgan Stanley recommends storing a percentage of your net worth in cryptocurrency these days.
What does this mean for fantasy football player evaluation? Everything. Draft strategy, start/sit decisions, and trade offers are all based on variance between managers when it comes to player expectations. Those expectations are based on perceived risk, whether that risk is for injury, strength of matchups, opportunity, or talent.
How does risk appetite play out in drafts? Players change teams, come back from injury, or get new teammates or coaches over the offseason. Many such scenarios add to uncertainty for the coming season. Average draft positions fall. Saquon fell to the 1st-2nd round turn last year. He won’t be there this coming draft season. Last season we just didn’t know if Hurts would steal TDs, or the other weapons on the team would render him less necessary. He ended up being a beast. For those who took a risk on Barkley in the first, they were rewarded.
Diversify your fantasy team’s risk portfolio by combining some steady-Eddies who rank highly in the Ballers consistency rankings(™) with a few boom or bust guys you have a hunch will break out. Boring Barry with his roster full of low-risk “safe” players may seldom dip below the league median each week, but if his opponent Exuberant Eric and his volatile squad hit nitro on the week of their matchup, it’s gonna be scary for Barry.
By blending consistent players with high upside potential breakouts, your roster will be built for a Cannonball Run a lá JJ McClure, not Captain Chaos.
For more fantasy football content, follow me on X.com @Sodtoshi
🏈 ❤️